In this forecast of the 21st century, Zakaria argues that the American hegemony over the world order is declining, ushering in a new age of regional powers and requiring a new policy of multilateralism. Pointing to the economic rise of China and the growing strength of India, he argues that America must learn how to adjust peacefully and proactively as its relative power declines in the world.
But Zakaria is no Thomas Friedman in his literary and journalistic skill nor a David Calleo in his academic rigor. The result is a weak, diluted, and poorly timed declinist novel that blames all the usual suspects and suggests all the regular prescriptive action. I even double-checked the publishing date twice because the examples and references all seemed so out-dated. This could have been written in the early 1970s, or late 1980s or mid- 1990s with just a few changes. And perhaps worse of all, the title of the book is very misleading. Zakaria does not imply that America will fall behind the rest of the world, or even that America is failing, per se. He is simply suggesting that the world is moving towards a multipolar state with many important actors. Despite the title, Zakaria readily admits that no country will approach the US in terms of hard power for decades to come.
Zakaria is not necessarily wrong in his predictions of the future; he simply has poor arguments and weak evidence. And the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the resulting shocks are hardly mentioned and undermine many of his arguments. I was also disappointed with Zakaria's understanding of basic economic principles, a crucial element of any future scenario. The book reads like an opinion piece in a local newspaper, full of sloppy numbers and examples.
I do believe that journalists can write good books. I am a big fan of Thomas Friedman and Martin Wolf for example. But this one gives the profession a black eye.
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